TikTok Shop will sell roughly $8 billion in goods this year. It is set to get banned in January, along with the rest of TikTok. With it, social commerce will disappear, too.

According to TabCut data, spending on TikTok Shop in the U.S. during January-November reached $6.5 billion. Full-year spending should exceed $8 billion thanks to continued holiday shopping. It got there in just over a year — TikTok Shop launched in September 2023; no sales channel has grown as quickly in the U.S. before.

After the TikTok ban — set to take effect on January 19th — users and creators will likely migrate to platforms like YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels that have replicated the core TikTok experience. TikTok’s value proposition will not disappear even if TikTok itself does.

However, the $8 billion marketplace will mostly evaporate. There is no shopping on YouTube Shorts or Instagram Reels. And while brands that sell through TikTok Shop will shift their ad budgets and focus to other channels, those will not be social commerce. Facebook and Instagram have tried that for years but have since retreated to being advertising platforms.

Adding buy buttons to a social network is social commerce. TikTok Shop has pioneered social commerce in the U.S. because it has democratized influencing. Expanding a previously distinct set of users, often recognized by a high follower count, with anyone with at least 1,000 followers. “Their content, perceived as genuine and trustworthy, resonates deeply with audiences seeking relatable and authentic recommendations. And this results in a ‘see it, like it, buy it’ effect where the customer can immediately transact in the moment,” Future Commerce quoted a source who works closely with TikTok Shop.

TikTok also tweaked its algorithm to push TikTok Shop content (a practice some users described as “tiktok shop has ruined the whole app. it’s all ads and reviews instead of silly little videos”) and subsidized a lot of the sales volume by offering discounts. With only weeks left until the ban, it started offering $50 credits for all new users a TikTok user could bring. TikTok is operating as if the ban is a nuisance — it has nearly 700 open positions related to TikTok Shop.

TikTok ban’s pros and cons aside, its long-lasting impact on e-commerce will be getting people familiar with buying after seeing content on a social network. Sure, TikTok forced TikTok Shop into existence at the cost of annoying some users, disrupting its own advertising network, and the financial cost of subsiding sales. The $8 billion figure is not real; it’s only as big as TikTok boosted it to be. And it got there without onboarding recognizable brands, mostly relying on Amazon best-sellers and Temu look-alikes. But if it survives, there is a lot of pent-up interest from brands waiting on the sidelines.